Global investment in average retail could reach $200 billion in 2027, according to Warc predictions. However, its pace of growth is slowing as advertisers are beginning to explore other options, including advertising associated with artificial intelligence-powered e-commerce.
In one of its latest analyses, titled “The Future of Commerce Media 2025”, the consultancy points out that retail media companies must opt for reinvention in a context in which traditional sponsored search is slowing down and brands concentrate their investment on a smaller number of retail platforms.
As their estimates indicate, average retail investment will reach $174.9 billion this year, reflecting a growth of 13.7% compared to the previous year. The figure will increase by 12.4% by 2026, reaching $196.7 billion, a figure that will represent 16% of all advertising investment.
AI threatens the human traffic that retail media has capitalized on
However, the growth rate is on a slowing trend, approaching single digits. According to Warc, this rate has gone from 38% in 2021 to, predictably, approaching 11% in 2027.
Warc attributes this evolution, among other things, to artificial intelligence and new ways of seeking information and inspiration about brands and products, since new tools threaten the high volumes of human traffic that media retail companies have capitalized on to date.
Warc’s analysis also offers other data of interest to understand the evolution of advertising investment in retail media. Among them, spending on retail platforms is expected to exceed the combined investment between linear TV and connected TV by 2026.
The consulting firm suggests that future growth will come from display retail media, that is, visual advertising on retail platforms; and off-site retail media, that is, the use of the retailer’s own data to buy advertising in advertising inventories outside their own ecosystems.
As Warc points out, in the first half of 2025, UK advertisers’ spend on retail display advertising increased 41.6% year-on-year, compared to a 35.6% increase in retail search advertising spend.
Regarding advertisers who bet on this channel, the analysis indicates that the investment of endemic brands, that is, with advertised products that are sold at the retailer, is slowing down.
By contrast, retail media ad spending for technology and electronics brands, the largest category, is projected to reach $32.2 billion globally in 2026, up 15% from the previous year.
On the other hand, fast commerce, called quick-commerce – which focuses on the delivery of orders in the shortest possible time – is an expanding area. Instacart, Uber, Delivery Hero and DoorDash have annual advertising businesses exceeding $1 billion.
The evolution of retail media
Although the pace of growth points to a slowdown, the consulting firm points out that retail media is consolidating itself as a comprehensive solution for the conversion funnel. According to a survey conducted by Infillion, 40% of agency executives who buy advertising in the retail sector consider it an integral conversion funnel solution, and 7% agree that it represents an opportunity for the top of the funnel.
However, the channel still faces a challenge overcoming the perception that it is only effective for the bottom of the funnel. Its integration into strategies with other channels, such as connected television (CTV), oof-site advertising, digital outdoor advertising or in-store advertising will be useful for this.
Amazon presents a growth rate of 15% in its media retail business
An example of this is Amazon, which presents a year-on-year growth rate of 15%, thanks mainly to an advertising ecosystem that covers the entire conversion funnel and strategic alliances. Its partners include Roku, Disney, Netflix, Spotify and Microsoft, which allows it to enhance its reach. In the United States, for example, it claims to reach 300 million users per month.
Retail media, however, must optimize its proposal in a context in which interest in AI-powered commerce is advancing. According to the firm Edgar, Dunn & Company, the total potential market for this type of commerce has an estimated value of $136 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to reach a potential of $1.7 trillion in 2030.
