In a context marked by geopolitical uncertainty, digital fragmentation and resurgence of protectionist policies, artificial intelligence emerges as one of the lights for the global commercial system. This is reflected in the “World Trade Report 2025” of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which dedicates its edition of this year to exploring the potential impact of AI on international trade.
The report concludes that, under the most favorable scenarios, AI could boost world trade of goods and services between 34% and 37% here at 2040. This acceleration would be a consequence of productivity profits and reductions in trade costs. The impact would also result in global economic growth, with an estimated increase in world GDP of between 12% and 13% depending on the capacity of countries to adopt technology.
In order for growth to be inclusive and sustainable, it will be necessary to promote the development of digital skills
But the forecast comes with conditions. In order for this growth to be inclusive and sustainable, it will be necessary to adopt public policies that reduce inequalities in access to technology, promote the development of digital skills and preserve an open commercial environment, predictable and rules based on rules.
“AI has enormous potential to reduce costs and improve productivity. But access to these technologies remains very unequal”has warned Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO general director, during the presentation of the report in Geneva.
A lever for growth
The report estimates that if low and medium income countries manage to reduce their digital gap compared to developed countries by 50% and adopt the AI more generalized, they could experience an increase in income of 15% and 14%, respectively.
Currently, access to assets of AI such as semiconductors, advanced sensors, computer networks and electronic components remains unequal. The worldwide trade of these goods reached 2.3 billion dollars in 2023, but rates applied by low -income countries can reach 45%, which limits its ability to integrate into this technological revolution.
In addition, regulatory obstacles have grown exponentially. The number of quantitative restrictions on goods related to AI has gone from 130 in 2012 to almost 500 in 2024, especially in high or medium-high income economies.
Beyond its direct impact, the WTO defends that trade can be a key facilitator for a more equitable adoption of artificial intelligence. “Commerce allows access to critical goods, services and infrastructure that enable the development of IA -based solutions. But to work for all, we need more open and cooperative regulatory frameworks”indicates the document.
Among the specific proposals, they are included:
- An extension of the Information Technology Agreement, to reduce tariffs on key components
- New commitments within the framework of the General Agreement on Services Trade, adapted to the digital economy
- IMPULSE TO THE MULTILLATERAL DEBATE ON DIGITAL COMMERCE RULES WITH IMPACT IN DEVELOPMENT AND EQUITY
Benefits, but also risks
The WTO does not obviate the challenges. AI has the capacity to transform the labor market abruptly, replacing certain jobs and modifying others. “Managing this transition requires investment in education, continuous training and social protection”alert the report.
In this sense, the role of national governments is underlined to prevent a historical error from being repeated: “The reaction against globalization had a lot to do with the lack of investment in education and social cohesion during the previous decades. We cannot repeat it now with AI”warns Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.
It is also noted that small producers and SMEs could benefit if access to tools such as automatic translation, intelligent logistics planning or regulatory compliance assisted by AI is democratized, which would facilitate their entry into new markets.
The AI will not only transform how it is traded, but also what is traded
According to the document, the AI will not only transform how it is traded, but also what is traded. Intensive digital services in AI (such as models based consulting, generative design, predictive analysis or engineering assisted by AI) will become key assets for growth.
Therefore, the countries that lead the production, export and regulation of these services will be positioned as referents of the new global trade. For AI to be a global development catalyst, the WTO calls:
- Avoid arbitrary barriers to digital trade
- Promote multilateral agreements focused on technological equity
- Expand cooperation forums between developing and advanced countries.
“AI could be one of the great drivers of trade in the coming decades. But it can also aggravate inequalities if we do not act now”says Johanna Hill, deputy general director of the WTO.
Thus, E World Trade Report 2025 concludes that the political decisions taken today will determine whether artificial intelligence becomes an inclusive force of global economic growth or a new fragmentation factor. To do this, trade remains one of the most powerful connection and joint development tools.
More info.: World Trade Report 2025
