Investment forecasts in global advertising have changed course, according to the new WARC estimates. The consultant has reviewed her projections and improve her expectations regarding the growth of marketing spending, which now places +7.4%, which represents an increase of 1.2 percentage points compared to the growth of +6.2% offered in the month of June.
The data translate that global advertising investment could reach 1.17 billion dollars this year.

The main reason for this positive review of the forecasts is in the increase in investment in digital advertising made by advertisers in the second quarter prior to the entry into force of Donald Trump’s tariffs on April 2. WARC also alludes to a redouble of efforts as a way to highlight in a context dominated by the disruption of trade or the reduction of consumer purchasing power.

However, it points to growth that will also extend over the next two years. Thus, it predicts an increase in the investment of +8.1% for next year, up to 1.27 billion dollars, and +7.1% in 2027, which would raise the market value to 1.36 billion dollars, twice the size of its size since 2020.

Alphabet, Amazon and Meta monopolize the investment

The digital environment monopolizes the bulk of global investment. WARC data suggests that 9 out of 10 additional advertising dollars invested this year are used to advertise on exclusively online platforms. This means that traditional media owners compete for the equivalent of what Facebook earns in an average month, WARC reports.
Meta, Alphabet and Amazon already attract 56% of total advertising expenditure -existing China -and the figure is expected to reach 60% by 2030.

• Social networks and goal

The projections suggest that the investment in social networks will increase almost 15% this year, to reach 306.4 billion dollars. The figure represents more than 26% of all advertising investment in 2025.
Growth is expected to continue for 2026 and 2027, although it experiences deceleration, 13 % and 12 % respectively. In two years the social media market could reach a value of 386.9 billion dollars, equivalent to more than 28% of all advertising investment.

In this context, Meta is expected to register this year a growth close to 15%, receiving 184.1 billion dollars of investment. This represents 60% of social networks investment, and almost 16% of world advertising investment.
However, WARC estimates that the goal quota in social networks could fall to 59% by 2027 in light of continuous growth of Tiktok.

Putting the focus on concrete platforms, the consultant expects Instagram to register a growth greater than 16% for the 2025-2027 period, above Facebook, which would grow to 10%. For its part, Tiktok would grow 21% during the same period and could represent almost 12% of the social media advertising in two years.

• Search and Google

On the other hand, the projections indicate that advertising investment in Search could grow 10% this 2025, to 253.2 billion dollars. This means that the search would be equivalent to more than 21% of total advertising investment.
Google maintains the domain in this territory and its forecast of advertising income is at 217.8000 million dollars, that is, 86% of the Search market.

• Middle Retail and Amazon

As for retail average, advertising investment could grow almost 14% this year, to reach 175,000 million dollars. This represents 15% of the global investment. The medium, however, would decelerate its growth around 2027.
Amazon stands out in this medium, with an expected turnover of 62,000 million dollars by 2025. Marketplace represents more than 35% of the average retail market and its quota in global advertising investment exceeds 5%.

Investment growth in the second quarter

As the consultant explains, the advertising investment experienced a positive second quarter. Internet, which includes social networks, average retail, online display and search, grew by 14% -in front of an initial forecast of 10% -, reaching 205,100 million dollars. This is 72% of global advertising investment.
Specifically, social networks experienced a 20% increase in their advertising income, compared to 12% previous projections.

A WARC and Nielsen analysis points out that this “unexpected increase”, as the consultants are called, is the result of the expense of social networks in the period prior to the introduction of tariffs in what Trump nicknamed “Liberation Day.”
Thus, retail trade increased its investment on Instagram (+19%) and Tiktok (+57%) at a much faster rate than on Facebook (+4%) during the second quarter.

The technology and electronics sector was also responsible for the aforementioned increase. Its increase was perceived especially on Facebook (59%), although also on Instagram (8%) and Tiktok (16%).

The evolution of the advertising market 2020-2027

The advisor’s forecasts estimate that, if the current trajectory is maintained, the value of the global advertising market will have doubled in the seven years elapsed since the pandemic. In 2020 he placed the global advertising investment at 552.3 billion dollars, and its estimate for 2027 raises the figure to 1.36 billion, which would show recovery after the impact of the coronavirus.

Its analysis also reflects the new market dynamics, which focuses on the digital environment. Thus, WARC indicates that there are five channels that have registered investment decreases from the pandemic: magazines (-49.9%), newspapers (-45.8%), traditional television (-35.2%), classified online (-25.4%) and radio (-17.7%).

By sectors, the 19 monitored by the consultant, it is expected that fashion is the one that has increased its investment from the pandemic, with an expense 2.4 times higher by 2027. It is also estimated that the travel and transport sector will have doubled its investment for within two years; While the nicotine industry will have more than duplicate its investment in the face of the growing penetration of electronic and voperators around the world.
On the other hand, the media are the only consumer -oriented sector that records a decrease from the pandemic, with an investment by 14.3% lower in 2027.