As the next Year of the Fire Horse (2026) approaches, a centuries-old superstition resurfaces and reignites fears. The idea that this zodiac year could lead to a drop in births.
The Chinese calendar associates each year with an animal according to a cycle of twelve, and combines this cycle with the five elements (wood, fire, earth, metal, water), which therefore gives a complete cycle of 60 years old. The year of the “Fire Horse” is therefore a rare configuration, marked since Antiquity by mythical stories and superstitions. In some East Asian societies, especially in Japanbeliefs linked to this sign have long weighed on social perceptions towards unborn children, and especially girls. And what happened 60 years ago, the last year of the Fire Horse, may surprise…
The superstition surrounding the “Fire Horse”
According to popular tradition in Japan, women born in the year Fire Horsesaid “ Hinoe-Uma“, would have too strong a temperament, irreconcilable with the traditional marital ideal. It is said that they could “harm” their husbands, or even ” endanger the home“.
In this system, the “Fire element” (yang) associated with the “Horse” creates the year known as “Feu-Cheval / Fire Horse” (the 43rd term of the cycle). In traditional cosmological logic, fire embodies a lively, intense, unstable energy and horse evokes speed, freedom, impetuosity. When these symbolisms are combined, the result is perceived (in certain popular traditions) as “excessive”, “unstable”, even “dangerous”: a mixture “too strong” energy and impulsiveness.
A cornerstone of the Fire Horse superstition is the tragic story of Yaoya Oshichi. This young woman, supposedly born in 1666year of Hinoe-umahas become famous in the popular imagination since in certain versions of the story, she would have set fire to a temple for lovethen executed.
1966, the fall in the birth rate
In 1966Japan recorded a spectacular drop in births. Approximately 1,361,000 births, almost 500,000 fewer only in 1965 or 1967, according to Nipon.com. This fall corresponds to a decrease about 25% in the number of births compared to the previous year, a record in Japanese demographic statistics.
The researchers first explored explanations “ classics“, modification of the laws on abortion, diffusion of contraception, social evolution. But none of these hypotheses was enough to make it so sudden and so marked. The careful statistical study highlighted a “ psychosocial shift“, attributable to traditional beliefs about the zodiac sign. Remarks that can be found in the document: Some details about the “Horse and Fire” year. Published in 1969 by JN Biraden.
Thus, couples would have delayed or canceled their child plans, or chosen not to have daughters that year. The phenomenon was not limited to rural areas or the most conservative environments : the demographic impact demonstrates fairly broad support.
In 2026, the Fire Horse announces daring upheavals. Find out how this powerful and unpredictable animal will shape your destiny according to the Chinese horoscope. pic.twitter.com/JFuF69WnRy
— Marie France (@mariefrancemag) September 30, 2025
Social consequences and post-birth discrimination
Beyond the drop in birth rates observed in 1966, several studies suggest that women born during the “Fire-Horse” year may have suffered, in the following decades, social and economic disadvantages linked to superstition. For example, a 2014 study (Long-term consequences of birth in an ‘unlucky’ year: evidence from Japanese women born in 1966) of theatoshi Shimizutani and Hiroyuki Yamada, would show that “Fire Horse women” present, on average, slightly higher divorce rates. But also levels lower income and education, which could reflect persistent discrimination or psychological effects of stigmatization.
Also read: Why does the date of Chinese New Year vary every year?
Beyond Japan, the “Fire Horse”
The research is not limited to Japan. A study covering the period 1970-2003 in South Korea showed that, during the years of the Horse, fertility was decreasing while the ratio of boy/girl births increased. Translating an overall drop in births, potentially motivated by a lack of interest in girls.
This phenomenon suggests that it is not only the “Fire Horse” that has an effect, but more broadly the cultural taboo attached to the Horse. Which indicates a wider influence of traditional astrology on reproductive behaviors in several East Asian countries. However, it is important to note that the effects vary according to cultural, economic and social contexts. In China, for example, the impact seems less markedwhich illustrates that these beliefs do not always translate in a uniform way.
2026 will be the year of the Fire Horse 🔥and a universal year 1.
—> symbol of departure, momentum and renewal
From February 17, natives of the Snake, Monkey, Tiger and Pig will feel the wheel turning in their favor. pic.twitter.com/f9DfEaBBkT
— Doc ALTÆRA (@ALTAERA11) September 1, 2025
