The abundance of content and products and services has marked the way we consume in recent years, but the consolidation of artificial intelligence tools and their integration into e-commerce flows is shaping the customer journey and marketing and sales strategies. So much so that 3.8% of global consumption will be driven by AI agents in 2030, according to Warc.

The consultancy has shared the results of research, carried out together with PHD, in which it explores the way in which technology is transforming the way we discover and buy. It has been based on expert opinions, category analysis and data provided by the Acxiom firm to carry out a holistic assessment of how much consumers will spend on AI channels in 2026 and 2030. The analysis covers ten markets, including Australia, Brazil, China, France, the United Kingdom and the United States.

The study reveals that the forecast for total consumption provided by agents this year will be $944 billion, which represents 1.3% of global consumer spending. However, it is estimated that the figure will reach $3.35 trillion in 2030, and spending driven by agentic commerce will represent 3.8% of the total.

Furthermore, the expense will not be distributed equitably since it will depend mainly on the level of AI adoption in each country. According to Warc, the top ten global markets will account for almost 68% of spending driven by AI agents. Specifically, the United States will lead this type of consumption in 2030, reaching 1.1 trillion dollars, that is, 31.9% of the global total. They are followed by China, with more than 505,000 million; and the United Kingdom, with 131,000 million.

By category, telecommunications and essential services (electricity, gas, water, etc.), media and beverages will lead spending driven by artificial intelligence agents. By 2030, this type of consumption will skyrocket in all sectors, but especially in those where purchases are frequent and generate a large amount of data.

The four scenarios of agentic commerce

Along with the figures, Warc and PHD have shared the Four-Modes Framework, which includes the areas that brands should focus on to adapt to a consumption and relationship landscape driven by artificial intelligence agents. As they explain, each mode requires strategy, capability design and creativity, and all four will coexist, varying in importance depending on the category, purchase occasion or stage of the customer journey.

These are the four modes:

• Brand-Consumer: categories in which brands will retain most control over purchasing decisions
• Consumer-Consumer: categories where recommendation and influencers will retain influence over purchase decisions
• Consumer-Agents: categories in which agents’ recommendations to consumers will influence purchasing decisions
• Agent-Agent: categories in which communication between agents will have greater control over consumer decisions

Brand-Consumer Mode

In this section the categories in which the impact of AI will be minor will be located. Refers to those in which purchases are of high value and low frequency, such as automobiles or electronic products; or with privacy restrictions, such as pharmaceutical and healthcare, which offer less scope for AI transactions. It stands out for the role played by trust and the need for consumers to feel safe before delegating costly or privacy-involving decisions.

Consumer-Consumer Mode

These would be the categories where the influence will continue to be eminently human, whether co-workers, content creators or the community, although some routine purchases are relegated to agents. Cosmetics or fashion would fit in this section.
The predominance of human influence does not mean that brands can ignore the growth of purchases powered by AI agents, which will be smaller but not zero.

Agent-Consumer Mode

As Warc and PHD explain, in this section you will find the categories in which the brand will retain a certain influence on consumer perception, but the purchasing process could be increasingly automated by agents. These are categories related to purchases with frequent replenishment cycles and common brand preferences, such as beverages, food, retail or media.

For example, in the field of alcoholic beverages, the consultancy estimates that AI agents will influence spending of $62 billion in 2026, offering recommendations on ideas for parties, pairings and special occasions. By 2030, that spending will grow 219% to reach $198.4 billion, with agents excelling in replenishment and product discovery.

As for soft drinks, the $60.5 billion agent-driven spend expected in 2026 will rise to $305,000 in 2030, experiencing growth of more than 403%. Similar evolutions will be experienced by the media and retail sectors; and the latter faces the challenge of remaining relevant in the decision-making and purchasing process of consumers, instead of limiting itself to acting as a provider of services and products.

Agent-Agent Mode

This section will contain the categories that will presumably experience the greatest penetration of transactions between agents in the coming years. These are those in which agents will go from being search assistants to decision facilitators, and then, to transaction agents in the usual behavior of the consumer. As the consulting firm explains, purchases do not necessarily have to be low value or high volume; the process just needs to be repetitive and measurable.

We are talking about telecommunications and basic services (electricity, gas, water, etc.), whose spending driven by AI agents will go from the 57.6 billion dollars expected for 2026 to 410.3 billion in 2030. According to the Warc report, the large amount of information, frequent billing and contract change based on comparisons make these infrequent but high-value purchases ideal for delegation to AI.

In the finance sector, purchasing decisions are too delicate to be fully delegated, but the category will grow based on the need for agent assistance. AI-driven spending will reach $237.9 billion by 2030.

Faced with a context of growing presence and influence of artificial intelligence on consumer purchasing decisions, brands must transform their marketing strategies to drive business through agents. To do this, industry professionals must have solid and structured databases; differential and distinctive brand assets; and storytelling that connects with people and stands out against AI tools.