Global advertising investment maintains its growth rate despite geopolitical tensions and the pressure that the cost of living exerts on consumers. According to Warc Media’s latest forecast update, the global advertising market will grow by 11.9% this year, reaching $1.34 trillion. The figure represents an acceleration compared to the 10% growth recorded in both 2024 and 2025.
The advance responds, in part, to the high business investment related to artificial intelligence and the impetus of major international events, such as the Olympic Games, the Soccer World Cup or the midterm legislative elections in the United States.
However, Warc warns that advertising growth is evolving differently from the economic situation of many consumers. While brands increase their budgets, many households continue to face economic difficulties that affect their purchasing decisions.
“We are living in unusual times for advertising. Investment is accelerating even as many consumers face cost-of-living pressures and are more cautious with their spending”explains Suzy Young, Head of Data at Warc Media. The directive believes that this apparent contradiction reflects an increasingly unequal economy, in which growth, especially that related to artificial intelligence, is benefiting certain companies, sectors and consumer groups to a greater extent than others.
Social networks lead growth
The study places social networks as the advertising channel with the highest growth expected for 2026, with an increase of 21% and an investment of 394.6 billion dollars. Warc estimates that this figure will exceed 500 billion in 2028.
Search and retail media will also maintain notable evolution. Investment in search engine advertising will grow by 14%, to $295.7 billion, while retail media will advance by 14%, to $202.1 billion.
Together, social networks, search and retail media will concentrate 66.4% of global advertising investment in 2026, a proportion that could reach 70% in 2028.
Digital outdoor advertising will grow by 14%, up to 21.7 billion
The data reflects the growing weight of channels linked to product discovery, purchase intent and measurable business results. According to Warc, performance-oriented environments are especially benefiting from a context in which companies seek to quickly adapt their investments to market conditions.
Other channels will also register double-digit growth. This is the case of video on demand, with an increase of 15% and an investment of 48.4 billion dollars, and digital outdoor advertising, which will grow 14%, up to 21.7 billion.
The evolution is different in traditional media. Investment in television will grow by 1.2% in 2026, to $176.2 billion, while radio will decline by 1.9%. Newspapers will lose 2.7% and magazines will register a drop of 1.5%. Outdoor advertising as a whole, which includes traditional and digital formats, will grow by 8.1%, up to $63.3 billion, while cinema will advance by 6%.
Artificial intelligence reinforces market concentration
Artificial intelligence appears in Warc’s forecasts as one of the main drivers of advertising growth, both due to the investment of technology companies and its incorporation into marketing processes.
On the one hand, new businesses linked to AI are increasing their investment to attract customers and build brands, while established companies are intensifying their advertising activity to compete in an increasingly crowded market.
On the other hand, artificial intelligence tools are improving processes related to segmentation, material production and campaign optimization, which can increase the return on investment and favor new budget allocations.
Warc also anticipates that generative search engines and AI assistants will establish themselves as new advertising spaces, as they gain prominence in product discovery and purchasing decisions.
The rise of AI will also contribute, according to Warc, to reinforcing the concentration of the advertising business on large platforms. Alphabet, Amazon and Meta will jointly absorb 60% of global advertising investment excluding China in 2026, equivalent to $659.6 billion. By 2028, the consulting firm expects its joint share to rise to 61%, with advertising revenues of 804.1 billion.
Warc’s forecasts suggest that global advertising investment will continue to increase over the next two years, although with a progressive moderation in its pace. In 2027, the market will grow by 8.4%, reaching $1.46 trillion. The advance will be reduced to 7.9% in 2028, when investment will reach 1.57 trillion.
The organization attributes this slowdown to increasingly demanding comparison bases and the normalization of the market after several years of strong growth.
In any case, if the forecasts are met, global advertising investment in 2028 will be 2.3 times higher than that registered in 2019.
The forecasts thus outline an advertising market that continues to expand despite economic uncertainty and that concentrates a growing part of its resources on social networks, search engines and digital commerce. An evolution in which artificial intelligence plays an increasingly relevant role, both as an advertising sector and as a technology and future advertising distribution environment.
